Pathways to Net Zero

Transport is the fastest growing source of global greenhouse GHG emissions and the UK’s biggest polluting sector.  Emissions from road transport – 95% of the UK’s transport total – have hardly changed since 1990. Vehicles efficiency gains have been largely offset by larger vehicles and rising demand.

According to the Climate Change Committee, the annual reduction in surface transport emissions needs to quadruple in this decade[i]

Greener Vision: Pathways to Net Zero draws on extensive research and consultations to identify what would be a credible, politically deliverable framework for decarbonising transport. The key conclusion is that urgent focus is needed on behaviour change and traffic reduction. However, the legacy of decades of car-centric planning means that delivering this will require system-wide changes.

We need a whole systems approach to transport decarbonisation that reflects the shift to digital connectivity and the integration of transport with land-use planning, energy, green finance and the trip-generating sectors such as health, education and employment.   We must reduce energy demand and deliver modal switch both for passengers and freight.

We must price properly for carbon, whilst also ensuring a fair and just transition to net zero, and we must strengthen delivery of net zero across the UK.  It is easier at a regional level to develop integrated strategies for transport, housing, skills and economic development. Government should enable all local areas to plan and invest on an integrated long-term basis.

There is the potential to deliver significant emissions savings by reducing energy demand, but politicisation can hinder the transition.  For example, the switch to electric vehicles presents a once in a generation opportunity to change how we pay for road use. Moreover, if we do nothing, we are baking in rising traffic growth and congestion and a £35 billion^[i] fiscal back hole.  In lowering the cost of motoring, electrification will increase car use and make mode shift even harder to deliver. 

We need cross-party agreement to look at new ways of paying for road use, but the politics make this problematic.  The Government’s forthcoming Net Zero Public Participation Strategy could have an important role to play in educating the public and building a mandate for change.

Public buy-in for climate policies is essential.  We need an informed national public conversation.

It is important to get the tone of the net zero discussion right.  We must avoid polarization and ideological thinking.  Decarbonisation will require a shift away from a car-based culture.  But too often the debate is centred on cars being ‘good’ or ‘bad’ and becomes alienating. Linking the narrative on net zero to the public health emergency of air pollution resonates better with the public.

A coherent policy framework that provides a contract for shared participation is essential.  How can you encourage people to change their behaviour when they don’t have any other choices available to them?  People are often “locked in” to unsustainable consumption patterns through perverse incentives, economic constraints, institutional barriers or inequalities in access that actively encourage unsustainable behaviours.

Progress depends on enabling people to act together.  Political expediency won’t get us to net zero.  The reasons for climate policies are as important as the policies themselves and need to be communicated clearly and consistently.  Otherwise, politicians will struggle to gain the mandate they need to take difficult decisions.  Lack of public trust in climate policies can lead to a backlash.

People need to be appealed to as citizens not just as consumers.  People will willingly shoulder a burden – even one that requires short term sacrifice against uncertain long-term threats – provided they share a common purpose and are rewarded with a greater sense of social belonging.  However, they require proof that others are contributing before they themselves will act.

We need a new kind of internationalism.  86 percent of people globally want to see their countries set aside geopolitical differences and work together on climate change^[ii]. The scale of consensus is especially striking in the global context of increased conflict and the rise of nationalism.

We need to think and act in a global context for the long term. 

The cumulative impact of decisions made for short-term self-interest is putting huge strain on our ecological system and leading to irreversible changes. Climate change exposes the shortcomings of a rationalist view of the world which has created economic systems which unsustainably plunder finite resources. We are wired to focus on immediate self-interests.  The result is a lack of systemic wisdom.

We must put an end to economic short-termism.  Climate change should be framed in terms of managing immense risks and that delay is dangerous.  Greater emphasis should be given to co-benefits such as improving health and well-being, enhancing bio-diversity, creating jobs, reducing poverty, stabilising the economy, and increasing resilience and the ability to adapt to climate change.

We need economic templates that reduce the world’s carbon footprint without compromising our quality of life.  A fair and just transition must be at the heart of change.  We should prioritize growth according to its contribution to the Sustainable Development Goals rather than strictly linear GDP. These 17 interconnected goals aspire to sustainably increase global prosperity, equality and well-being.^[iii]

Pricing properly for carbon is a fundamental building block but ensuring a fair and just transition means recognising the inequalities such measures can create and addressing them.  The overall impact of a carbon tax doesn’t have to be regressive as its revenue can be returned to households in ways that promote progressivity.  The key question is how to use carbon pricing as an instrument whilst ensuring that the transition to net zero avoids inflicting hardship on low-income households.

Research published by Carbon Brief reveals that the wealthiest 10% are responsible for 65% of the 0.61°C increase in global average temperature 1990-2020^[iv].  Efforts to attribute global warming to individual income groups are an important step towards developing more targeted policies.

To achieve real and lasting change we need to start with ourselves.

The world is now experiencing the impacts of climate breakdown.  We must rise to the challenge of this escalating emergency. UN Climate Change Chief Simon Stiell has warned that world is on a trajectory to 3°C^[v].

In his famous quote, “Be the change that you wish to see in the world” Mahatma Gandhi emphasized the importance of personal transformation as a catalyst for positive change.

Systemic change is a deeply personal endeavour.  Our social and economic structures are a product of our way of thinking.  The central proposition of Greener Vision: Pathways to Net Zero is that policy as usual will not achieve net zero.  We need new thinking, creative solutions and systemic change.

Climate policy should be informed by five key ‘Pillars of Unity’:

Firstly, we should seek to see the whole picture.  We need to become more honest and self-aware about our decision-making.  Are the assumptions underpinning our response to the climate crisis fit for purpose?  We are part of the problem if we persist with the illusion that ‘business as usual’ will achieve net zero.

We need to find ways effectively to engage our emotional brains in climate change.  Rational scientific data loses out against a compelling emotional story that speaks to people’s values.  Integration of thoughts and feelings will be critical.

We need a radical realignment of how we perceive ourselves in relation to the environment on which we depend.  We must strive to be at one with nature.  We need to connect with our natural empathy and respect for all living species and foster the understanding that protection of nature is “protection of our very selves”^[vi].

Too much attention is given to treating symptoms and not enough to the system.  We need a whole systems transition to net zero. Healing the whole system means addressing the root cause of climate change: our addiction to fossil fuels.

We should strive to become citizens of ‘One World’.  Climate change is a global intergenerational problem requiring unprecedented levels of cooperation.  It is one issue that could bring us together and help us overcome our historic divisions.

Greener Vision is running a series of discussions to explore how to develop a response to the climate crisis commensurate to the scale of challenge.  ‘The Pillars of Unity’ series will explore how we might embrace more holistic thinking and an approach that creates unity rather than division.  If you would like to receive information on the series, please sign up here.

^[i] https://committees.parliament.uk/committee/153/transport-committee/news/160791/road-pricing-act-now-to-avoid-35-billion-fiscal-black-hole-urge-mps/

^[ii] https://www.ox.ac.uk/news/2024-06-20-80-percent-people-globally-want-stronger-climate-action-governments-according-new

^[iii] https://sdgs.un.org/goals

^[iv] https://www.carbonbrief.org/two-thirds-of-global-warming-since-1990-caused-by-worlds-wealthiest-10/

^[v] https://www.ft.com/content/f17d09af-8f44-409a-b1dc-ad33a0792446

^[vi] Joanna Macy & Chris Johnstone, Active Hope: How to Face the Mess We’re in with Unexpected Resilience and Creative Power, New World Library 2012, 2022