Setting the Challenge

This is a watershed moment.

This week nearly 60 countries gathered in Colombia for the first international conference ever to discuss how to move beyond fossil fuels^[i].  The talks ended with agreement of a “coalition of the willing” to develop national roadmaps to transition away from fossil fuels.  Whilst this is a positive step, it is one born of frustration.  Despite all the years of effort and hard work, UN climate talks have consistently failed to tackle oil, gas and coal production directly.

Our addiction to fossil fuels is a blind spot that is not only driving the climate crisis but also threatening our energy security, exposing us to escalating oil and prices and damaging the world economy.  Fatih Birol of the International Energy Association has described the oil crisis triggered by the Iran War and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz as the “biggest energy security threat in history”.  There are fears that any further escalation will trigger a global recession.

Accelerating climate impacts are meanwhile pushing the world into dangerous and unchartered territory.  UN Secretary General António Guterres has declared, “The state of the climate is in a state of emergency.  Planet Earth is being pushed beyond its limits.  Every key indicator is flashing red.”^[ii]

This moment calls for leadership.

The world must deliver drastic greenhouse gas emissions reductions at a time of rising geopolitical tensions and in the context of a global backlash against net zero.  The UK has a strong track record on climate change, but the once strong cross-party political consensus on net zero has fractured.  We need to rebuild the consensus that enabled the UK to halve its emissions whilst the economy grew by 80%[iii].

The breakdown of political consensus is a major impediment to progress.  A recent survey shows that although 64% of British public still supports the 2050 net zero target, there is a sharp decline in support for high impact climate policies.[iv]  Net zero has been politicised.  ECIU analysis shows articles about net zero increasingly omit any reference to climate crisis despite their inherent link[v].  Carbon Brief shows that nearly 100 newspaper editorials opposed climate action in 2025[vi].

The business case for accelerating climate action is overwhelming. It has been clear since the Stern Review that delaying action makes it more expensive in the long run.^[vii]  Climate Change Committee calculates that every £1 invested in net-zero yields up to £4 in wider economic benefits.[viii]  We must harness the forces pushing forward.  The growth in renewables is a major success story. The value of the green economy is expected to exceed $7 trillion a year by 2030^[ix].

The window to act is closing. 

The Earth’s climate is further out of balance than at any time in history.  The rate of global heating is almost doubling[x].  The last 11 years were the hottest on record^[xi].  Seven out of nine planetary boundaries have been breached^[xii].  We are at risk of reaching catastrophic tipping points which would supercharge global heating.^[xiii]  The rate of heating could rise still further with the wider adoption of AI which uses vast amounts of energy[xiv]. The window to avoid irreversible climate impacts is rapidly closing.

Our response to the climate crisis is falling short of what is required.  Climate action is being obstructed and delayed by false and misleading information funded by fossil fuels companies.^[xv]  Powerful vested interests are stymying progress, but the problem goes deeper.  We are out of alignment with ourselves and the environment on which we depend.  We are wired to focus on immediate self-interest, but the result is a lack of systemic wisdom.  We need a radical realignment.  We need to think and act in a global long-term context.

The Tabula Project: A Blueprint for Change sets out how our thinking needs to change if we are to rise to the challenge.  Efforts to tackle the climate crisis would benefit from more holistic thinking. Policy should be underpinned by five ‘Pillars of Unity’*.  The report informed a series of roundtable discussions The Tabula Project 2025, which highlighted a range of policy priorities, governance and institutional changes and tactics for engaging with the public on net zero.  Building on these conclusions, Greener Vision is today launching a consultation on how we might bring about a realignment and strengthen efforts to tackle the climate crisis.

There is everything still to play for. 

Nicholas Stern challenges the idea that we must choose between climate action and development and presents the case for transformation that delivers both prosperity and a healthier planet.[xvi]  Even after years of insufficient action, the world can still return to well below 1.5°C of warming this century if countries pursue the “highest possible ambition” in climate action^[xvii].  But first we must stomach some hard truths and navigate some tough political choices.

Greener Vision is today launching a wide-ranging consultation Greener Vision: Setting the Challenge.  Discussions with politicians from all political parties, business leaders and other experts will explore how we might develop a new approach to tackling the climate crisis.  The long-term aim is to help foster a realignment that would be beneficial not only in the context of climate policy, but more broadly for governments, businesses and across all parts of society. 

Strategic oversight is provided by the Council for the Future chaired by The Rt Hon Lord Deben, former Chair of the Climate Change Committee.  Council for the Future is an independent high-level forum to explore new approaches to tackling climate change with particular focus on rebuilding political consensus and strengthening the public debate.

*THE PILLARS OF UNITY

1. Seeing the whole picture – we need to become more honest and self-aware about our decision-making.
2. Integrating heart and mind – we need to engage our emotional brains in climate change
3. Being at one with nature – we need a radical realignment of how we perceive ourselves in relation to the environment on which we depend.
4. Healing the whole system – we need to address the root causes of climate change: our addiction to fossil fuels.
5. Becoming citizens of ‘One World’ – climate change is a global intergenerational problem requiring unprecedented levels of cooperation.

[i] https://transitionawayconference.com/

[ii] https://wmo.int/news/media-centre/earths-climate-swings-increasingly-out-of-balance

[iii] https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-first-major-economy-to-halve-emissions

[iv] https://www.kcl.ac.uk/news/uks-sense-of-urgency-on-net-zero-and-support-for-climate-policies-falls-sharply-study-finds

[v] https://eciu.net/media/press-releases/british-media-divorcing-net-zero-from-climate-change-analysis

[vi] https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-uk-newspaper-editorial-opposition-to-climate-action-overtakes-support-for-first-time/

[vii] https://www.lse.ac.uk/granthaminstitute/explainers/what-is-the-stern-review/

[viii] https://www.theccc.org.uk/publication/supplementary-analysis-of-the-seventh-carbon-budget/

[ix] https://www.weforum.org/press/2025/12/the-multi-trillion-dollar-growth-opportunity-new-report-shows-green-economy-expected-to-surpass-7-trillion-in-annual-value-by-2030/

[x] https://www.pik-potsdam.de/en/news/latest-news/significant-acceleration-of-global-warming-since-2015

[xi] https://wmo.int/news/media-centre/earths-climate-swings-increasingly-out-of-balance

[xii] https://www.planetaryhealthcheck.org/

[xiii] https://www.carbonbrief.org/tipping-points-window-to-avoid-irreversible-climate-impacts-is-rapidly-closing/

[xiv] https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-co2-from-uk-data-centres-could-be-hundreds-of-times-higher-than-thought/

[xv]https://www.ipie.info/news/press-release-climate-misinformation-threatens-global-action-says-ipie-assessment

[xvi] https://press.lse.ac.uk/books/m/10.31389/lsepress.tgs

[xvii] https://climateanalytics.org/press-releases/world-can-still-rescue-1-5-c-says-new-analysis-mapping-the-highest-ambition-path