“We can choose to lead – or be led to ruin”

At the opening of the COP30 climate summit UN Secretary-General António Guterres chastised nations for their failure to limit warming to 1.5°C. 

“Too many corporations are making record profits from climate devastation, with billions spend on lobbying, deceiving the public and obstructing progress… Too many leaders remain captive to these entrenched interests”.  “This is moral failure – and deadly negligence”. ^[i]

The 10 hottest years in history have all occurred in the last decade. ^[ii]  And yet according to research just published by the Global Carbon Project global carbon emissions from fossil fuels have hit a record high and are projected to rise by 1.1% in 2025. ^[iii]

What is going wrong?  The science is clear.  Devastating climate change impacts are accelerating at frightening speed.  We’ve known for years that the economic case for early action is unequivocal^[iv].  We also know what we need to do.  We have virtually all the technologies we need^[v].  The issue is the politics.

In the UK, the easy wins of decarbonising the power sector have happened.  Little progress has been made in sectors where people need to make changes in their lives, and the once strong political consensus is fracturing.  Net zero has become a political battleground with division stoked by misinformation funded by vested interests.  We urgently need a better informed, evidence-based and balanced public debate.

How can we approach climate policy differently?  How can we prevent short-term thinking and political expediency from driving critical decision making? 

In 2025, the Centre for Energy Ethics – University of St Andrews and Greener Vision partnered on a series of roundtable discussions to address these critical questions.  The series built on insights from The Tabula Project a 30-year creative endeavour that started with the assumption that we won’t solve our most intractable problems with the same thinking that created them.

The series highlighted some key policy priorities, governance and institutional issues and tactics for engaging with the public on climate change.  We will publish a full report next year.  Today we have published an interim report which summarises some of the challenges and opportunities.

A central theme of The Tabula Project is the sanctity of truth.  This is an essential prerequisite both for a healthy mind and a healthy society.  The imperative has come into ever sharper focus with the rise in populism, where opinions are increasingly based on emotions and beliefs rather than facts.

As part of strengthening the public debate on net zero there needs to be a clearer distinction between fact and fiction in the media.  We need greater transparency and democratic accountability given the considerable influence yielded in Westminster by funded interests.  Policy priorities should include ensuring a fair and just transition to net zero, prioritising growth that addresses our climate and nature crises and pricing properly for carbon.  The climate crisis must be treated as an emergency.  We need to engage with the public through positively orientated storytelling.

A study by Climate Analytics shows that, even after years of insufficient action, the world can still return to well below 1.5°C of warming this century if countries pursue the “highest possible ambition” in climate action^[vi].

There is everything still to play for.  But first we must stomach some uncomfortable truths and navigate some tough political choices.

[i] https://unfccc.int/news/this-cop-must-ignite-a-decade-of-acceleration-and-delivery-un-secretary-general-address-to-belem

[ii] https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-global-temperature

[iii] https://globalcarbonbudget.org/fossil-fuel-co2-emissions-hit-record-high-in-2025/

[iv] The Economics of Climate Change: The Stern Review, Nicholas Stern Cabinet Office – HM Treasury, 2006, published as a volume by Cambridge University Press 2007

[v] https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/syr/

[vi] https://climateanalytics.org/press-releases/world-can-still-rescue-1-5-c-says-new-analysis-mapping-the-highest-ambition-path